I was reading with interest, the predictions for 2010 from Strand Consult as posted on 160characters.org.
One particular prediction interested me more than the others and that was that 2010 will be the moment of truth for mobile value added services. They predict a great deal of focus on app stores, which in itself is pretty unremarkable as most in the industry would have forecast that one. However, they rightly predict that there will be a reality check during the year where app providers realise that they are not making enough money from mobile apps. The math isn't complicated, if you're selling an app for 60p, you would need to sell 456 of them every single day of the year to make £100k. I therefore think the small independents will start to get swallowed up by the big boys who can rely on economies of scale to maximise their profits, and large marketing budgets to ensure their app gets most focus. It's not all doom and gloom though as there's always a market for the "garage" app developer and the quirkiest apps will always do well and then be copied by the big boys.
The prediction that the OneAPI initiative will open up access for app developers to the intelligence in the mobile networks is interesting. This might allow the re-birth of location based services which are key for the next wave of Mobile Loyalty and Mobile Marketing services. I still think privacy rules aren't sufficient to protect the consumer in this space, and I can see OFCOM or others kicking up a stink at some point in the new year...
Strand also pick up on another conflict that I've mentioned on previous blogs, that is the war between the mobile operators and the banks for control of the mobile payments value chain. The banks in places like Kenya where a partnership between operators Safaricom and Vodafone have launched the M-Pesa service are already causing a fuss. Something like 18% of Kenya's GDP traverses the M-Pesa system and the service seriously undercuts the banks' own charges for money transfer by traditional means. The battle for control of the "secure element" will continue. Personally I'd like to see this in the device, i.e. a chip in the mobile phone, rather than on the SIM card as the latter would allow the operators to charge for transactions, making the costs prohibitive or making it not worthwhile for banks and other service providers to bother offering services via the mobile channel. Also, it will mean compatibility issues and the phone will never truly replace the wallet if you need a different SIM card for each bank account you have or each credit card you own or for every train company you travel on with your mobile ticket...
Whatever happens, it's clear that 2010 is going to be a big year for Mobile Commerce. I don't know about you but I'm looking forward to it...
This is my last post before Christmas, so I'd like to take this opportunity to wish all my readers and followers a very Happy Festive Season. I won't wish for a prosperous new year though because my prediction is that anyone involved in Mobile Commerce is practically guaranteed so hope doesn't come into it...
Have a good one and I'll see you in January...
One particular prediction interested me more than the others and that was that 2010 will be the moment of truth for mobile value added services. They predict a great deal of focus on app stores, which in itself is pretty unremarkable as most in the industry would have forecast that one. However, they rightly predict that there will be a reality check during the year where app providers realise that they are not making enough money from mobile apps. The math isn't complicated, if you're selling an app for 60p, you would need to sell 456 of them every single day of the year to make £100k. I therefore think the small independents will start to get swallowed up by the big boys who can rely on economies of scale to maximise their profits, and large marketing budgets to ensure their app gets most focus. It's not all doom and gloom though as there's always a market for the "garage" app developer and the quirkiest apps will always do well and then be copied by the big boys.
The prediction that the OneAPI initiative will open up access for app developers to the intelligence in the mobile networks is interesting. This might allow the re-birth of location based services which are key for the next wave of Mobile Loyalty and Mobile Marketing services. I still think privacy rules aren't sufficient to protect the consumer in this space, and I can see OFCOM or others kicking up a stink at some point in the new year...
Strand also pick up on another conflict that I've mentioned on previous blogs, that is the war between the mobile operators and the banks for control of the mobile payments value chain. The banks in places like Kenya where a partnership between operators Safaricom and Vodafone have launched the M-Pesa service are already causing a fuss. Something like 18% of Kenya's GDP traverses the M-Pesa system and the service seriously undercuts the banks' own charges for money transfer by traditional means. The battle for control of the "secure element" will continue. Personally I'd like to see this in the device, i.e. a chip in the mobile phone, rather than on the SIM card as the latter would allow the operators to charge for transactions, making the costs prohibitive or making it not worthwhile for banks and other service providers to bother offering services via the mobile channel. Also, it will mean compatibility issues and the phone will never truly replace the wallet if you need a different SIM card for each bank account you have or each credit card you own or for every train company you travel on with your mobile ticket...
Whatever happens, it's clear that 2010 is going to be a big year for Mobile Commerce. I don't know about you but I'm looking forward to it...
This is my last post before Christmas, so I'd like to take this opportunity to wish all my readers and followers a very Happy Festive Season. I won't wish for a prosperous new year though because my prediction is that anyone involved in Mobile Commerce is practically guaranteed so hope doesn't come into it...
Have a good one and I'll see you in January...
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