Here's my personal views on where I think the Mobile Commerce market will head in 2010...
Smartphones Will Make Up More than 30% of the Market
With the traditional manufacturers finally catching up with Apple and launching high-powered, low cost touch-screen Smartphones, I foresee a shift of power back to the consumer and a mini-price war erupting. Rumour has it that Vodafone have over 300,000 on its UK waiting list for the iPhone once it's allowed to start selling it in January. Nokia, Sony and HTC have all recently launched new smartphones along with powerful versions from the likes of Palm, Dell and Acer also hitting the streets. Currently sales of the iPhone represent about 5% of the UK market, around 15% in the US. This was before O2 lost it's monopoly on selling iPhones in the UK and with the likes of Tesco getting in on the act too, Apple should enjoy a massive surge in sales in 2010. But, Nokia and the other big manufacturers won't sit back and watch Apple gobble up the market. Expect lucrative offers from the Mobile Operators backed by daring subsidies from the device manufacturers. The price difference between a standard, boring old phone and a smart phone will become less prohibitive. By the end of the year, I predict 30% of phones will be Smartphones in some shape or form, and Apple will enjoy the lion's share. What does this mean for Mobile Commerce? Superior processing power and usable graphical interfaces will make undertaking transactions such as ticketing, loyalty, payments and others feasible, low cost 3G data packages will make it affordable. If only they'd sort out the cost of data roaming for us poor international businessmen and women...
NFC will Make Little Impact
Despite a raft of Smartphones hitting the market, I doubt many phones will be equipped with NFC chips. This is a shame as the chipsets aren't expensive to include in handsets and the benefits of contactless transactions are clear (especially if it means we can all get home from the office via an enormous water slide!)... Seriously, unless the likes of Apple, Nokia and the other giants include NFC chips in new phones, contactless won't take off. Sure, there'll be the smartcard version, but that only delivers a minuscule percent of the real benefits. Until we can undertake contactless transactions on our phones, the industry won't take off. Unfortunately, device manufacturers are focused on what makes their phones sell better than the competing, and right now that means higher resolution cameras, bigger storage and more processing power to support the surge in popularity of gaming and other apps. NFC will have to wait for its big break in 2011. One potentially market changing event I do predict in this space however, is that one or more of the large mobile operators will build NFC technology into their SIM cards.
Mobile Loyalty Will Emerge from the Shadows
Tesco will launch a mobile version of its Clubcard and the other major UK supermarket chains will catchup and launch a similar product (eventually - maybe in 2011!). Under the Tesco scheme (and please note this is my prediction, I have no inside information that suggest they're actually working on this at all - I just believe Tesco are the most pioneering of the supermarkets) you will use your mobile instead of the clubcard, have a Smarphone app installed that allows you to shop from your mobile (Ocado were the first with this) and the provision of location based product and offer information.
SMS Will Continue to Grow with M2M Driving Demand
Good old SMS will continue to grow in terms of the volume of SMS messages being sent. In 2009 businesses have finally spotted the potential cost savings and increased efficiencies that SMS based communication with stakeholders can bring and this will continue into 2010. Machine to Machine will be a major contributor to this growth with businesses increasingly concerned about the cost and security issues of always on data connections. As the mobile marketing industry continues to shine with its self-regulation approach, SMS marketing will become accepted by consumers and the volume of messages will soar. Advanced services such as location based marketing and SMS marketing linked to actual buying patterns (see Loyalty above) will also drive demand. SMS will also form the majority of the underlying messaging infrastructure that drives Mobile Payment, Remittances and Ticketing, further driving up volume. Quality rather than cost will become the prevalent buyer decision point, although overall I expect pricing for bulk SMS services to drop considerably. Businesses will start to reject the cheap and cheerful off-shore aggregators as some fall foul of Privacy Regulation and realise the only way to avoid expensive fines and loss of brand value is to use a quality, established aggregator.
MMS will Finally Lose the Battle Against SMS/WAP
Apps and better equipped browsers on larger screened Smartphones will finally see the end of the MMS vs WAP war. With cheaper data rates and unclear MMS pricing, people will use dedicated apps to store and forward photos and other media, rejecting the MMS interface completely. SMS will be used to forward WAP sites to consumers.
All the Major Airlines Will Have Some Form of Mobile Ticketing/Boarding
Lufthansa and Schipol Airport led the way in 2009, and others will follow in 2010. This will include some of the "no frills" airlines who will recognise another way to reduce costs (and perhaps introduce new charges for passengers not using mobile ticketing - as if they would!).
Services will include booking flights via mobile, receiving a ticket in the form of a barcode, checking in via the mobile, using the phone as a boarding card and receiving live flight information as you travel to and through the airport. As an aside, I also predict the end of restrictions on using mobiles in the air.
Early Adopters Will Be Using Mobile Ticketing on Trains
The train companies will follow the airlines' example and start allowing us to use our mobiles instead of crumpled bits of paper when we want to travel on the trains. It'll happen in Europe first (it's already happening in Asia) and then spread to the UK eventually, where our fragmented railway industry will make it difficult for a single standard solution across all networks.
Mobile Authentication Will Secure Online Banking
Two-factor authentication (one time passwords) will be used by the banks to secure online banking transactions. For example, if you want to log on to your bank's online portal to view your statement, you'll first of all have to request a one time password. This will then be sent to your registered mobile phone and once you've entered it it will then be unusable. It's not 100% failsafe, but it makes banking online much safer...
Whatever happens, Mobile Commerce remains the key industry to be involved in. Have a Happy and Very Prosperous New Year.
Smartphones Will Make Up More than 30% of the Market
With the traditional manufacturers finally catching up with Apple and launching high-powered, low cost touch-screen Smartphones, I foresee a shift of power back to the consumer and a mini-price war erupting. Rumour has it that Vodafone have over 300,000 on its UK waiting list for the iPhone once it's allowed to start selling it in January. Nokia, Sony and HTC have all recently launched new smartphones along with powerful versions from the likes of Palm, Dell and Acer also hitting the streets. Currently sales of the iPhone represent about 5% of the UK market, around 15% in the US. This was before O2 lost it's monopoly on selling iPhones in the UK and with the likes of Tesco getting in on the act too, Apple should enjoy a massive surge in sales in 2010. But, Nokia and the other big manufacturers won't sit back and watch Apple gobble up the market. Expect lucrative offers from the Mobile Operators backed by daring subsidies from the device manufacturers. The price difference between a standard, boring old phone and a smart phone will become less prohibitive. By the end of the year, I predict 30% of phones will be Smartphones in some shape or form, and Apple will enjoy the lion's share. What does this mean for Mobile Commerce? Superior processing power and usable graphical interfaces will make undertaking transactions such as ticketing, loyalty, payments and others feasible, low cost 3G data packages will make it affordable. If only they'd sort out the cost of data roaming for us poor international businessmen and women...
NFC will Make Little Impact
Despite a raft of Smartphones hitting the market, I doubt many phones will be equipped with NFC chips. This is a shame as the chipsets aren't expensive to include in handsets and the benefits of contactless transactions are clear (especially if it means we can all get home from the office via an enormous water slide!)... Seriously, unless the likes of Apple, Nokia and the other giants include NFC chips in new phones, contactless won't take off. Sure, there'll be the smartcard version, but that only delivers a minuscule percent of the real benefits. Until we can undertake contactless transactions on our phones, the industry won't take off. Unfortunately, device manufacturers are focused on what makes their phones sell better than the competing, and right now that means higher resolution cameras, bigger storage and more processing power to support the surge in popularity of gaming and other apps. NFC will have to wait for its big break in 2011. One potentially market changing event I do predict in this space however, is that one or more of the large mobile operators will build NFC technology into their SIM cards.
Mobile Loyalty Will Emerge from the Shadows
Tesco will launch a mobile version of its Clubcard and the other major UK supermarket chains will catchup and launch a similar product (eventually - maybe in 2011!). Under the Tesco scheme (and please note this is my prediction, I have no inside information that suggest they're actually working on this at all - I just believe Tesco are the most pioneering of the supermarkets) you will use your mobile instead of the clubcard, have a Smarphone app installed that allows you to shop from your mobile (Ocado were the first with this) and the provision of location based product and offer information.
SMS Will Continue to Grow with M2M Driving Demand
Good old SMS will continue to grow in terms of the volume of SMS messages being sent. In 2009 businesses have finally spotted the potential cost savings and increased efficiencies that SMS based communication with stakeholders can bring and this will continue into 2010. Machine to Machine will be a major contributor to this growth with businesses increasingly concerned about the cost and security issues of always on data connections. As the mobile marketing industry continues to shine with its self-regulation approach, SMS marketing will become accepted by consumers and the volume of messages will soar. Advanced services such as location based marketing and SMS marketing linked to actual buying patterns (see Loyalty above) will also drive demand. SMS will also form the majority of the underlying messaging infrastructure that drives Mobile Payment, Remittances and Ticketing, further driving up volume. Quality rather than cost will become the prevalent buyer decision point, although overall I expect pricing for bulk SMS services to drop considerably. Businesses will start to reject the cheap and cheerful off-shore aggregators as some fall foul of Privacy Regulation and realise the only way to avoid expensive fines and loss of brand value is to use a quality, established aggregator.
MMS will Finally Lose the Battle Against SMS/WAP
Apps and better equipped browsers on larger screened Smartphones will finally see the end of the MMS vs WAP war. With cheaper data rates and unclear MMS pricing, people will use dedicated apps to store and forward photos and other media, rejecting the MMS interface completely. SMS will be used to forward WAP sites to consumers.
All the Major Airlines Will Have Some Form of Mobile Ticketing/Boarding
Lufthansa and Schipol Airport led the way in 2009, and others will follow in 2010. This will include some of the "no frills" airlines who will recognise another way to reduce costs (and perhaps introduce new charges for passengers not using mobile ticketing - as if they would!).
Services will include booking flights via mobile, receiving a ticket in the form of a barcode, checking in via the mobile, using the phone as a boarding card and receiving live flight information as you travel to and through the airport. As an aside, I also predict the end of restrictions on using mobiles in the air.
Early Adopters Will Be Using Mobile Ticketing on Trains
The train companies will follow the airlines' example and start allowing us to use our mobiles instead of crumpled bits of paper when we want to travel on the trains. It'll happen in Europe first (it's already happening in Asia) and then spread to the UK eventually, where our fragmented railway industry will make it difficult for a single standard solution across all networks.
Mobile Authentication Will Secure Online Banking
Two-factor authentication (one time passwords) will be used by the banks to secure online banking transactions. For example, if you want to log on to your bank's online portal to view your statement, you'll first of all have to request a one time password. This will then be sent to your registered mobile phone and once you've entered it it will then be unusable. It's not 100% failsafe, but it makes banking online much safer...
Whatever happens, Mobile Commerce remains the key industry to be involved in. Have a Happy and Very Prosperous New Year.
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